Ledger / Prediction #426 · narrative · 6H

Will "starblo" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 29% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

50 of 2261 launches in the last hour referenced "starblo" (25 distinct creators, rank #15). Last 15m momentum 0.41×.

Made2026-10-10 00:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 06:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 00:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34538776394910686,
      "momentum": -0.8868113413174549,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.29131695715002404
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "starblo",
    "rank60": 15,
    "share15": 0.00919732441471572,
    "share60": 0.022325375773651637,
    "total15": 597,
    "total60": 2261,
    "momentum": 0.4119672836848902,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 50,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 25
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938269444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989711574074074
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.29131695715002404
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 06:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.085

Log loss0.344

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006964394532950292,
  "shareRatio": 0.22383149700763946,
  "totalAfter": 11487,
  "shareBefore": 0.003273108143493061,
  "totalBefore": 15276,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 50
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 29% that "starblo" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.33% → 0.07% (-79%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "starblo" (6H). momentum contributed -0.89 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashba106f2a23f0ded9d9ee0af7820e58b71925b587a787a98db0b7d2d52b67ee73

Previous hash71a053c36ef86b82c6f004a201a70fdcb7c0804e76540bd981654ad074d272a3