Ledger / Prediction #4261 · token · 1H

Will $burnpump2 still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 4% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 24m ago. website. No hot term. Creator launched 3 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-15 00:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 01:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 00:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.03752722974296934
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "3H62yVx7K7mo6nFecWo7bp1xJiPvHqFK1SaaUys4pump",
    "name": "burnpump2",
    "symbol": "burnpump2",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 24,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 69,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3112.8788860237323,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 3
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 565,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.03752722974296934
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 01:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.038

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-15T00:07:12.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2914.165890125098,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3521.9832726560326,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3112.8788860237323,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6225.757772047465
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 4% that $burnpump2 would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,914, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $burnpump2 (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashef8acc4fd577df63791c303b7456955567f9eeaf7b39a670fbb295c2c1cc4166

Previous hash9b8acdb8f08861dc5e53e1a4f073f8ef442938b88df647e141c73fcd76f6a813