Ledger / Prediction #4264 · token · 6H
Will $Alon still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 2% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 16m ago. No social links. No hot term. Creator launched 7 tokens in the last hour.
Made2026-10-15 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 06:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 00:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0,
"twitter": 0,
"website": 0,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0,
"serialCreator": -0.8
},
"rawProbability": 0.02310254327777607
},
"features": {
"mint": "ELZyK9mMhskqroDPW6ZtqgK8AR9NqyCnBy6cyiwXpump",
"name": "Alongatorcoon",
"symbol": "Alon",
"hotTerms": [],
"ageMinutes": 16,
"hasTwitter": false,
"hasWebsite": false,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 0,
"marketCapAtObservation": 3070.477556824414,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 7
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 565,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.02310254327777607
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 06:30 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
43903f5f14b1f94a6ed7d6f9f35dd802b5e1df40647c436134847681308ff073Previous hash
81abec5145b4e8372bb28c0b406d911c278a5f05accb0d907f87c4920b7cfe74