Ledger / Prediction #4265 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

45 of 1693 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (12 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.51×.

Made2026-10-15 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3295836866004329,
      "momentum": -0.672077785813049,
      "diversity": -0.58
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2274978332921596
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.01371571072319202,
    "share60": 0.026859504132231406,
    "total15": 400,
    "total60": 1693,
    "momentum": 0.5106464607711491,
    "diversity": 0.26666666666666666,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 45,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 185,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935372222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935372222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2274978332921596
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.052

Log loss0.258

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01893939393939394,
  "shareRatio": 0.7207222199109706,
  "totalAfter": 1848,
  "shareBefore": 0.026362038664323375,
  "totalBefore": 1707,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 35,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 45
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 23% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.64% → 1.89% (-28%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed -0.67 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6934fc701a090ba4704906ed5a919d168abe94cdbf9611adae7a1a10e9c2c1ca

Previous hash43903f5f14b1f94a6ed7d6f9f35dd802b5e1df40647c436134847681308ff073