Ledger / Prediction #4267 · narrative · 1H

Will "scout" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 1693 launches in the last hour referenced "scout" (6 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.58×.

Made2026-10-15 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": 0.4560330445939789,
      "diversity": -0.724390243902439
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4371499264325604
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "scout",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.03865336658354115,
    "share60": 0.024498229043683588,
    "total15": 400,
    "total60": 1693,
    "momentum": 1.5778024817474388,
    "diversity": 0.14634146341463414,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 185,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935372222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935372222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4371499264325604
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.191

Log loss0.575

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0027056277056277055,
  "shareRatio": 0.12242371324128315,
  "totalAfter": 1848,
  "shareBefore": 0.02401874633860574,
  "totalBefore": 1707,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 44% that "scout" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.40% → 0.27% (-89%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "scout" (1H). diversity contributed -0.72 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha0e303cc36a371f82e09f4a8a9f8bde0dbef764e3a914d430bde1c0456e3b885

Previous hash82c87b6a13a875086dbcb4bbc3afdd3fda1f40873e83ace79133479d62b18cd8