Ledger / Prediction #4268 · narrative · 1H

Will "halloween" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1693 launches in the last hour referenced "halloween" (5 distinct creators, rank #212). Last 15m momentum 1.15×.

Made2026-10-15 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.14160346377516964,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5353418308227115
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "halloween",
    "rank60": 212,
    "share15": 0.003740648379052369,
    "share60": 0.003246753246753247,
    "total15": 400,
    "total60": 1693,
    "momentum": 1.1521197007481296,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 185,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935372222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935372222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5353418308227115
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.287

Log loss0.766

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0010822510822510823,
  "shareRatio": 0.4198829834308471,
  "totalAfter": 1848,
  "shareBefore": 0.0029291154071470417,
  "totalBefore": 1707,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "halloween" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.29% → 0.11% (-63%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "halloween" (1H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash39b026711282508d7177a973dbcce0837158785555896bd6374a309a3dbe63dd

Previous hasha0e303cc36a371f82e09f4a8a9f8bde0dbef764e3a914d430bde1c0456e3b885