Ledger / Prediction #4297 · narrative · 1H

Will "insane" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

167 of 1841 launches in the last hour referenced "insane" (4 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.46×.

Made2026-10-15 02:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 01:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5262833849973981,
      "momentum": 0.37793232827606904,
      "diversity": -0.8712574850299402
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.43363347939577207
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "insane",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.1326963906581741,
    "share60": 0.09093376764386536,
    "total15": 470,
    "total60": 1841,
    "momentum": 1.4592641886110846,
    "diversity": 0.023952095808383235,
    "launches15": 62,
    "launches60": 167,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 169,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957633333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957633333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.43363347939577207
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.188

Log loss0.568

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007183908045977011,
  "shareRatio": 0.01188672573957206,
  "totalAfter": 1392,
  "shareBefore": 0.09036796536796536,
  "totalBefore": 1848,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 167
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 43% that "insane" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 9.04% → 0.07% (-99%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "insane" (1H). diversity contributed -0.87 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe2768dd8520f1f69a124d3ac3ce373b896590f072b450120817336f8d28e8fbc

Previous hashf4dd7f76e8e1d959156075d827d1a7afb7b5e745e592cb3d39d93dd76ebd811e