Ledger / Prediction #4310 · token · 6H
Will $FRONTIER still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 10% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 22m ago. X link, website. No hot term.
Made2026-10-15 02:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 08:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 01:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0,
"twitter": 0.4,
"website": 0.3,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0,
"serialCreator": 0
},
"rawProbability": 0.09583022773245922
},
"features": {
"mint": "3RKiQF4n7oSDmkFTZDgqGCRgu8pF3mZB32jjFLTdpump",
"name": "Frontier Finance",
"symbol": "FRONTIER",
"hotTerms": [],
"ageMinutes": 22,
"hasTwitter": true,
"hasWebsite": true,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 0,
"marketCapAtObservation": 3068.4444406031485,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 668,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.09583022773245922
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 08:00 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
b4b7223e0cdbb616bd7eff3f57aba2b5494ff3100123cd831b7e30d21b5f0d69Previous hash
44e6f0a11f4e849dcb50e9b25f097cbc4c7abe513d8ccf753aaf1a42a01500cc