GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4310 · token · 6H

Will $FRONTIER still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 22m ago. X link, website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-15 02:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 08:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 01:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09583022773245922
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "3RKiQF4n7oSDmkFTZDgqGCRgu8pF3mZB32jjFLTdpump",
    "name": "Frontier Finance",
    "symbol": "FRONTIER",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 22,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3068.4444406031485,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 668,
  "calibration": null
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.09583022773245922
}
Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 08:00 UTC.

Integrity

Hashb4b7223e0cdbb616bd7eff3f57aba2b5494ff3100123cd831b7e30d21b5f0d69
Previous hash44e6f0a11f4e849dcb50e9b25f097cbc4c7abe513d8ccf753aaf1a42a01500cc