Ledger / Prediction #4312 · token · 6H
Will $NILZFUSION still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 7% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 29m ago. X link. No hot term.
Made2026-10-15 02:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 08:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 01:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0,
"twitter": 0.4,
"website": 0,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0,
"serialCreator": 0
},
"rawProbability": 0.07280096915005271
},
"features": {
"mint": "94uEdfB6ypcf9oxnZadXYeDdEZWZfhafT8aUnihYpump",
"name": "NILZFUSION",
"symbol": "NILZFUSION",
"hotTerms": [],
"ageMinutes": 29,
"hasTwitter": true,
"hasWebsite": false,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 0,
"marketCapAtObservation": 3142.948484304046,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 668,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.07280096915005271
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 08:00 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
89b24365c60ec73588fb1cfb1bd2f7b1e52d854ddd31546d53802867ecb62b33Previous hash
5e0506db9c9eaa447a717fc1da4a377068da3889c9028927ff98bfd1471c1c80