Will "black" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

33 of 1674 launches in the last hour referenced "black" (8 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.50×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28306044735485697,
      "momentum": -0.6960002495423518,
      "diversity": -0.609090909090909
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.26592019617072205
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "black",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.009971509971509971,
    "share60": 0.02,
    "total15": 350,
    "total60": 1674,
    "momentum": 0.49857549857549854,
    "diversity": 0.24242424242424243,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 33,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 145,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921572222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986928703703704
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.26592019617072205
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC.

Integrity