Ledger / Prediction #4328 · token · 6H
Will $jellyjelly still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 11% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 25m ago. X link, website. No hot term.
Made2026-10-15 02:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 08:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 02:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0,
"twitter": 0.4,
"website": 0.3,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0.2,
"serialCreator": 0
},
"rawProbability": 0.11461549863791237
},
"features": {
"mint": "kgVm8Xyo9YSJ9huVngqCb6DuZyW9LX8kuub1ay6a747",
"name": "jelly-my-jelly",
"symbol": "jellyjelly",
"hotTerms": [],
"ageMinutes": 25,
"hasTwitter": true,
"hasWebsite": true,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 47,
"marketCapAtObservation": 3043.888366269063,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 467,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.11461549863791237
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
85b6deaa6b0de989cb256c86dc65f98434d7464e3ec21b3b7ab8ee60b775871dPrevious hash
8314774abf83a95607e8630191bc03c34790eecfd8937cc096e60fa38c0f48fa