Will "mouse" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

133 of 2417 launches in the last hour referenced "mouse" (53 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.42×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.49213668236814795,
      "momentum": 0.35297383376578223,
      "diversity": -0.4218045112781955
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5307875023784733
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "mouse",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.07858136300417246,
    "share60": 0.05521091811414392,
    "total15": 718,
    "total60": 2417,
    "momentum": 1.4232939007047865,
    "diversity": 0.39849624060150374,
    "launches15": 56,
    "launches60": 133,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 53
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 342,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990686111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990686111111111
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5307875023784733
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.030825022665457842,
  "shareRatio": 0.5635592573171166,
  "totalAfter": 2206,
  "shareBefore": 0.054890631448617416,
  "totalBefore": 2423,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 68,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 133
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity