Ledger / Prediction #4330 · narrative · 1H
Will "chinese" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 69% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
27 of 1389 launches in the last hour referenced "chinese" (22 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 2.19×.
Made2026-10-15 03:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 04:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 02:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.2529598430355343,
"momentum": 0.7828911390536741,
"diversity": 0.07777777777777772
},
"rawProbability": 0.6928822315022496
},
"features": {
"term": "chinese",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.04328358208955224,
"share60": 0.019784172661870502,
"total15": 334,
"total60": 1389,
"momentum": 2.1877883310719133,
"diversity": 0.8148148148148148,
"launches15": 14,
"launches60": 27,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 22
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 162,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9974416666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974416666666667
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6928822315022496
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-15 04:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.480
Log loss1.181
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.01628423390081421,
"shareRatio": 0.8429935449166219,
"totalAfter": 1351,
"shareBefore": 0.01939655172413793,
"totalBefore": 1392,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 22,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 27
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 69% that "chinese" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.94% → 1.63% (-16%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "chinese" (1H). momentum contributed +0.78 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
020f9b527f894f189bc752239d40603f5a58eab4a8ebf49c9893781ed79ddeb7Previous hash
9106479f50153dbc260cf58d1582760a6af4d7999668e4d45a0b4e7214f06b32