GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4330 · narrative · 1H

Will "chinese" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 69% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

27 of 1389 launches in the last hour referenced "chinese" (22 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 2.19×.

Made2026-10-15 03:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 04:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 02:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2529598430355343,
      "momentum": 0.7828911390536741,
      "diversity": 0.07777777777777772
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6928822315022496
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chinese",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.04328358208955224,
    "share60": 0.019784172661870502,
    "total15": 334,
    "total60": 1389,
    "momentum": 2.1877883310719133,
    "diversity": 0.8148148148148148,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 27,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 22
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974416666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974416666666667
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6928822315022496
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 04:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.480
Log loss1.181
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.01628423390081421,
  "shareRatio": 0.8429935449166219,
  "totalAfter": 1351,
  "shareBefore": 0.01939655172413793,
  "totalBefore": 1392,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 22,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 27
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 69% that "chinese" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.94% → 1.63% (-16%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "chinese" (1H). momentum contributed +0.78 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash020f9b527f894f189bc752239d40603f5a58eab4a8ebf49c9893781ed79ddeb7
Previous hash9106479f50153dbc260cf58d1582760a6af4d7999668e4d45a0b4e7214f06b32