Ledger / Prediction #4331 · narrative · 1H

Will "black" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

24 of 1389 launches in the last hour referenced "black" (5 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.59×.

Made2026-10-15 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.23529238768707678,
      "momentum": -0.5229816547556422,
      "diversity": -0.6499999999999999
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22483845834058347
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "black",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.010447761194029851,
    "share60": 0.01762589928057554,
    "total15": 334,
    "total60": 1389,
    "momentum": 0.5927505330490406,
    "diversity": 0.20833333333333334,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 24,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974416666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974416666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22483845834058347
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 04:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.051

Log loss0.255

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003700962250185048,
  "shareRatio": 0.2312975486052409,
  "totalAfter": 1351,
  "shareBefore": 0.017241379310344827,
  "totalBefore": 1392,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 24
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 22% that "black" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.72% → 0.37% (-79%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "black" (1H). diversity contributed -0.65 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashca516fe8d0b2566893adc6b24945e530e1dc2a469d9240bb15b25a4c68ca81c7

Previous hash020f9b527f894f189bc752239d40603f5a58eab4a8ebf49c9893781ed79ddeb7