Will "launchpad" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

10 of 1389 launches in the last hour referenced "launchpad" (10 distinct creators, rank #50). Last 15m momentum 1.38×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1039720770839918,
      "momentum": 0.32431620563156127,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6054648521614301
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "launchpad",
    "rank60": 50,
    "share15": 0.010447761194029851,
    "share60": 0.007553956834532374,
    "total15": 334,
    "total60": 1389,
    "momentum": 1.3830845771144278,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 10,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974416666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974416666666667
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6054648521614301
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0014803849000740192,
  "shareRatio": 0.2453155818540434,
  "totalAfter": 1351,
  "shareBefore": 0.007183908045977011,
  "totalBefore": 1392,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 10
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity