Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

59 of 1389 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (33 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.66×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3702149297207429,
      "momentum": -0.41175601964541786,
      "diversity": -0.22881355932203395
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3800706756748669
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.028358208955223882,
    "share60": 0.04280575539568345,
    "total15": 334,
    "total60": 1389,
    "momentum": 0.6624858898783395,
    "diversity": 0.559322033898305,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 59,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 33
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974416666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995736111111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3800706756748669
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 09:00 UTC.

Integrity