Ledger / Prediction #4338 · narrative · 24H
Will "bantiana" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 19% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
22 of 1389 launches in the last hour referenced "bantiana" (15 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.09×.
Made2026-10-15 03:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-16 03:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 02:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.22224068113863232,
"momentum": -2.383733995470649,
"diversity": -0.08181818181818187
},
"rawProbability": 0.19440214575140013
},
"features": {
"term": "bantiana",
"rank60": 10,
"share15": 0.0014925373134328358,
"share60": 0.01618705035971223,
"total15": 334,
"total60": 1389,
"momentum": 0.09220563847429519,
"diversity": 0.6818181818181818,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 22,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 15
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 162,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9974416666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998934027777778
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.19440214575140013
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-16 03:00 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
8721409f4940d771edce40e47b7de91dc82e4f0eaec3135d6e6d3571cd06c5e0Previous hash
54655485cd9ae567ea0af0d68b47cf4603f2f6b2f0427ebbdd4c2f0c8681f065