Will "pepe" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

21 of 1389 launches in the last hour referenced "pepe" (20 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.87×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.21526267879339842,
      "momentum": -0.14104704405767204,
      "diversity": 0.24285714285714277
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4646929578099247
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pepe",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.013432835820895522,
    "share60": 0.015467625899280576,
    "total15": 334,
    "total60": 1389,
    "momentum": 0.8684484553974314,
    "diversity": 0.9523809523809523,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 21,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974416666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998934027777778
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4646929578099247
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-16 03:00 UTC.

Integrity