Ledger / Prediction #4341 · token · 1H

Will $DeepSeek still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 11m ago. X link. Rides hot term "chinese".

Made2026-10-15 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11461549863791243
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "GaNY5h75JQXCD5TYNV7dm8FezcpzLBjG6nduSnggpump",
    "name": "DeepSeek AI",
    "symbol": "DeepSeek",
    "hotTerms": [
      "chinese"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 11,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 443,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3320.6368870485744,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 461,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.11461549863791243
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 04:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.013

Log loss0.122

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-15T02:54:01.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2878.4163533170554,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3918.2193017858444,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3320.6368870485744,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6641.273774097149
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that $DeepSeek would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,878, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $DeepSeek (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1da6d8daf3609cac7714ff8d7d2ad9d6e14d7feb8ee212fc6b03ed9f2d633689

Previous hash58d3a5b82985632676b2c3f00380e00ff0f918f158e7aea31648caea85a59782