Ledger / Prediction #4342 · token · 6H
Will $DeepSeek still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 11% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 11m ago. X link. Rides hot term "chinese".
Made2026-10-15 03:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 09:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 02:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0.3,
"twitter": 0.4,
"website": 0,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0.2,
"serialCreator": 0
},
"rawProbability": 0.11461549863791243
},
"features": {
"mint": "GaNY5h75JQXCD5TYNV7dm8FezcpzLBjG6nduSnggpump",
"name": "DeepSeek AI",
"symbol": "DeepSeek",
"hotTerms": [
"chinese"
],
"ageMinutes": 11,
"hasTwitter": true,
"hasWebsite": false,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 443,
"marketCapAtObservation": 3320.6368870485744,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 461,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.11461549863791243
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 09:00 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
fa5f9e4f12be929dbb2d0d53dc46520a3ba0bfb39ffdf8c04cc86e3715fdfd86Previous hash
1da6d8daf3609cac7714ff8d7d2ad9d6e14d7feb8ee212fc6b03ed9f2d633689