GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4342 · token · 6H

Will $DeepSeek still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 11m ago. X link. Rides hot term "chinese".

Made2026-10-15 03:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 09:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 02:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11461549863791243
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "GaNY5h75JQXCD5TYNV7dm8FezcpzLBjG6nduSnggpump",
    "name": "DeepSeek AI",
    "symbol": "DeepSeek",
    "hotTerms": [
      "chinese"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 11,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 443,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3320.6368870485744,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 461,
  "calibration": null
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.11461549863791243
}
Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 09:00 UTC.

Integrity

Hashfa5f9e4f12be929dbb2d0d53dc46520a3ba0bfb39ffdf8c04cc86e3715fdfd86
Previous hash1da6d8daf3609cac7714ff8d7d2ad9d6e14d7feb8ee212fc6b03ed9f2d633689