Ledger / Prediction #4343 · token · 1H

Will $DERP still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 27m ago. No social links. No hot term.

Made2026-10-15 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05000000000000001
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "CGmMQu91reu6qek1DgXeKjmcX8HoMk4HZeSNKUKwpump",
    "name": "DERPCAT",
    "symbol": "DERP",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 27,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 1231.1995014015838,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 461,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.05000000000000001
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 04:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-15T02:35:25.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 877.1118803899299,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 2944.9427560111426,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 1231.1995014015838,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $DERP would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $877, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $DERP (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha358b19758a49a13ac1a4fe12837568a73d6e5f41076c1514c69640ffb365d49

Previous hashfa5f9e4f12be929dbb2d0d53dc46520a3ba0bfb39ffdf8c04cc86e3715fdfd86