Ledger / Prediction #436 · narrative · 1H

Will "chaos" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 25% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

10 of 2417 launches in the last hour referenced "chaos" (6 distinct creators, rank #140). Last 15m momentum 0.48×.

Made2026-10-10 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 01:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1039720770839918,
      "momentum": -0.7330754756016221,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.24803808057585502
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chaos",
    "rank60": 140,
    "share15": 0.002086230876216968,
    "share60": 0.004342431761786601,
    "total15": 718,
    "total60": 2417,
    "momentum": 0.480429167494536,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 10,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 342,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990686111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990686111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.24803808057585502
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.062

Log loss0.285

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003173164097914778,
  "shareRatio": 0.7845167972037025,
  "totalAfter": 2206,
  "shareBefore": 0.004127115146512587,
  "totalBefore": 2423,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 10
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 25% that "chaos" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.41% → 0.32% (-23%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "chaos" (1H). momentum contributed -0.73 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash376d0a8f76a73172da516ba74aa797533b07b27a728495f757ad209208048c66

Previous hash84edecff9402b6e432902f3fadd9a20185363298bbba8ea7367ee7b3d8103144