Ledger / Prediction #445 · narrative · 1H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

213 of 2562 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (151 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.72×.

Made2026-10-10 01:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 01:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5627781379912987,
      "momentum": -0.3228827736470921,
      "diversity": -0.0492957746478873
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.472677143009886
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.06031468531468531,
    "share60": 0.0833008193523215,
    "total15": 571,
    "total60": 2562,
    "momentum": 0.7240587281570887,
    "diversity": 0.7089201877934272,
    "launches15": 34,
    "launches60": 213,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 151
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 370,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960377777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9960377777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.472677143009886
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 02:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.223

Log loss0.640

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0620384047267356,
  "shareRatio": 0.748796769256302,
  "totalAfter": 2031,
  "shareBefore": 0.08297623685235683,
  "totalBefore": 2567,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 126,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 213
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 47% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 8.30% → 6.20% (-25%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "quantum" (1H). momentum contributed -0.32 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash639d359a61cc37270e1215430c01c1f38f437cb66c1e2839ca4870aaa4249dba

Previous hashf76918acddb3f371e1d7375ec0815c60ce9b4d3fbaaae7da65baa4c087c83ad8