Will "beauty" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 29% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

206 of 2562 launches in the last hour referenced "beauty" (116 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.40×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5577657384533221,
      "momentum": -0.912734945332535,
      "diversity": -0.2242718446601942
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.29333507635698974
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "beauty",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.032342657342657344,
    "share60": 0.08056964494732735,
    "total15": 571,
    "total60": 2562,
    "momentum": 0.4014248463401006,
    "diversity": 0.5631067961165048,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 206,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 116
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 370,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960377777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9960377777777778
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.29333507635698974
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.041851304775972424,
  "shareRatio": 0.5232598043888582,
  "totalAfter": 2031,
  "shareBefore": 0.0802493182703545,
  "totalBefore": 2567,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 85,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 206
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity