Will "cartoon" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2562 launches in the last hour referenced "cartoon" (4 distinct creators, rank #359). Last 15m momentum 1.22×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.2005117508540124,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4706234285555093
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cartoon",
    "rank60": 359,
    "share15": 0.0026223776223776225,
    "share60": 0.002145922746781116,
    "total15": 571,
    "total60": 2562,
    "momentum": 1.222027972027972,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 370,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960377777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993396296296296
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4706234285555093
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002170481452249408,
  "shareRatio": 0.7895478996570514,
  "totalAfter": 10136,
  "shareBefore": 0.0027783290335384003,
  "totalBefore": 15117,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 22,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 42
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity