Ledger / Prediction #463 · narrative · 6H

Will "vamp" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

49 of 2188 launches in the last hour referenced "vamp" (5 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 0.25×.

Made2026-10-10 02:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 01:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34235735785147897,
      "momentum": -1.3903064026098515,
      "diversity": -0.7775510204081633
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.17110018353309345
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "vamp",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.00563063063063063,
    "share60": 0.022613065326633167,
    "total15": 443,
    "total60": 2188,
    "momentum": 0.24899899899899897,
    "diversity": 0.10204081632653061,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 49,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 321,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924152777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987358796296296
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.17110018353309345
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 08:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.029

Log loss0.188

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0015219155844155845,
  "shareRatio": 0.3638511022583575,
  "totalAfter": 9856,
  "shareBefore": 0.004288047917233868,
  "totalBefore": 14692,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 15,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 63
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "vamp" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.43% → 0.15% (-65%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "vamp" (6H). momentum contributed -1.39 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0903ae416308c1435d6f83ae46cee4550153dc976970bc4610dafe7067c948c8

Previous hash554d9f63129642d66e0c6155ff9d095f7e738c13cd596357b4e1bbaf65677fa0