Will "clyde" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 16% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

24 of 2188 launches in the last hour referenced "clyde" (20 distinct creators, rank #41). Last 15m momentum 0.10×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.23529238768707678,
      "momentum": -2.2964447630199887,
      "diversity": 0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.15805033648979652
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "clyde",
    "rank60": 41,
    "share15": 0.0011261261261261261,
    "share60": 0.011192325262677022,
    "total15": 443,
    "total60": 2188,
    "momentum": 0.10061592204449346,
    "diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 24,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 321,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924152777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987358796296296
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.15805033648979652
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.03042073073522805,
  "totalAfter": 9856,
  "shareBefore": 0.0016335420637081405,
  "totalBefore": 14692,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 24
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity