Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 17% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
180 of 2188 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (27 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.10×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.5375278407684164,
"momentum": -2.3475922741869297,
"diversity": -0.72
},
"rawProbability": 0.17292574213554654
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.007882882882882882,
"share60": 0.08245774326176336,
"total15": 443,
"total60": 2188,
"momentum": 0.09559906166554365,
"diversity": 0.15,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 180,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 27
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 321,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9924152777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9046927083333334
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.17292574213554654
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.032304975589487896,
"shareRatio": 1.303631366311757,
"totalAfter": 48135,
"shareBefore": 0.024777390631049168,
"totalBefore": 43911,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 1555,
"coverageBefore": 0.9050087384259259,
"launchesBefore": 1088
}Predicted 17% that "uxento" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 2.48% → 3.23% (+30%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "uxento" (24H). momentum contributed -2.35 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
— Overconfident: 83% and wrong on "uxento". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.
2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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