Will "share" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 2188 launches in the last hour referenced "share" (4 distinct creators, rank #161). Last 15m momentum 1.82×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": 0.596846704979511,
      "diversity": -0.3666666666666667
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4648515740706662
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "share",
    "rank60": 161,
    "share15": 0.007882882882882882,
    "share60": 0.004339881224303335,
    "total15": 443,
    "total60": 2188,
    "momentum": 1.8163821716453294,
    "diversity": 0.4444444444444444,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 321,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924152777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9046927083333334
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4648515740706662
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0021190401994390777,
  "shareRatio": 0.9304028304546736,
  "totalAfter": 48135,
  "shareBefore": 0.002277333697706725,
  "totalBefore": 43911,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 102,
  "coverageBefore": 0.9050087384259259,
  "launchesBefore": 100
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity