Ledger / Prediction #474 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

73 of 2021 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (54 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.68×.

Made2026-10-10 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 03:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40215322930714364,
      "momentum": -0.38427279160547856,
      "diversity": -0.01232876712328772
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.42691519283251705
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.024752475247524754,
    "share60": 0.03635014836795252,
    "total15": 504,
    "total60": 2021,
    "momentum": 0.6809456455849667,
    "diversity": 0.7397260273972602,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 73,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 54
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 302,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9977180555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9977180555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.42691519283251705
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 03:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.182

Log loss0.557

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03461704889658156,
  "shareRatio": 0.9625968034272533,
  "totalAfter": 2311,
  "shareBefore": 0.035942885278188084,
  "totalBefore": 2031,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 80,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 73
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 43% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.59% → 3.46% (-4%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash671633be6579dc30921b40d4d5146d7a9f2706bd69b483d7a31bdba5dd7da7ac

Previous hashea650fc59606ae4a23c2354e07ed411c678866973d420b8389f775d049860d1c