Ledger / Prediction #478 · narrative · 6H

Will "paid" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 28% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 2021 launches in the last hour referenced "paid" (24 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.40×.

Made2026-10-10 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": -0.9243509582089067,
      "diversity": -0.3763636363636364
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2771343024654971
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "paid",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.01089108910891089,
    "share60": 0.02744807121661721,
    "total15": 504,
    "total60": 2021,
    "momentum": 0.3967888680759968,
    "diversity": 0.43636363636363634,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 302,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9977180555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996196759259259
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2771343024654971
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 08:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.077

Log loss0.324

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00449582530507386,
  "shareRatio": 0.4401288393256339,
  "totalAfter": 9342,
  "shareBefore": 0.010301438053097346,
  "totalBefore": 14464,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 42,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 149
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 28% that "paid" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.03% → 0.45% (-56%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "paid" (6H). momentum contributed -0.92 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash00035a264339f8d3f9979a168df029f538e267dc504711c3055a6cfc9d762f76

Previous hashdac4cf0f0b23381be1887400e76ad3b34e315527ddf9ec56a3ee6b90f572db91