Ledger / Prediction #48 · token · 6H

Will $Breast still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 11m ago. X link. No hot term.

Made2026-10-09 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 14:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.08750880819853629
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "34gJW4cxbq8msmUGFP9GAXgkUacCmeiqMUpbBJXapump",
    "name": "Breastcoin",
    "symbol": "Breast",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 11,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 462,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 6500.060681969982,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 415,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.08750880819853629
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 14:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.008

Log loss0.092

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T11:37:32.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3087.0740239089187,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 9764.852230433307,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 6500.060681969982,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 13000.121363939965
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 9% that $Breast would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,087, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $Breast (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5287bd39136673b3618197a986f805bce9b2d9cafb4a78535bafa25ff075332f

Previous hash56d146a6aeb8ca9e0fa5f9080e98798dac117eb5a7605f2204601eb47c6023a2