Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

125 of 2021 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (89 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.04×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.48283137373023005,
      "momentum": 0.03621830106891009,
      "diversity": -0.045600000000000036
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.48418648510620593
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.06435643564356436,
    "share60": 0.06206726013847676,
    "total15": 504,
    "total60": 2021,
    "momentum": 1.0368821742732042,
    "diversity": 0.712,
    "launches15": 32,
    "launches60": 125,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 89
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 302,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9977180555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9257419675925926
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.48418648510620593
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.02822093556046153,
  "shareRatio": 0.4173222818194824,
  "totalAfter": 48014,
  "shareBefore": 0.06763778478482924,
  "totalBefore": 45034,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1355,
  "coverageBefore": 0.9258370486111112,
  "launchesBefore": 3046
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity