Ledger / Prediction #49 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 69% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
50 of 1244 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (26 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 2.81×.
Made2026-10-09 08:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 09:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 08:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.34538776394910686,
"momentum": 1.0318933645777109,
"diversity": -0.27599999999999997
},
"rawProbability": 0.6902484602230088
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.1138328530259366,
"share60": 0.040562248995983936,
"total15": 346,
"total60": 1244,
"momentum": 2.8063742973721,
"diversity": 0.52,
"launches15": 39,
"launches60": 50,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 26
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 116,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9988177777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988177777777778
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6902484602230088
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-09 09:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.476
Log loss1.172
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.01712583767684289,
"shareRatio": 0.4317612564827912,
"totalAfter": 1343,
"shareBefore": 0.04012841091492777,
"totalBefore": 1246,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 23,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 50
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 69% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.01% → 1.71% (-57%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +1.03 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
757cd35e3b9afd50d28ab8c736b76c7e7b9c1b197b44857e4ae4d7ce5ee40bbePrevious hash
5287bd39136673b3618197a986f805bce9b2d9cafb4a78535bafa25ff075332f