Will "beauty" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 26% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

84 of 2166 launches in the last hour referenced "beauty" (54 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.36×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.423206832961382,
      "momentum": -1.015511533526443,
      "diversity": -0.1285714285714285
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2648567763352621
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "beauty",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.014124293785310734,
    "share60": 0.03899400092293493,
    "total15": 530,
    "total60": 2166,
    "momentum": 0.36221709624577947,
    "diversity": 0.6428571428571429,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 84,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 54
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 316,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943713888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9943713888888889
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2648567763352621
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0035746201966041107,
  "shareRatio": 0.09798594575452375,
  "totalAfter": 2238,
  "shareBefore": 0.03853211009174312,
  "totalBefore": 2180,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 84
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity