Ledger / Prediction #492 · narrative · 1H

Will "crowd" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2166 launches in the last hour referenced "crowd" (5 distinct creators, rank #290). Last 15m momentum 1.11×.

Made2026-10-10 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.10705399616415942,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5267379679144385
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "crowd",
    "rank60": 290,
    "share15": 0.002824858757062147,
    "share60": 0.0025380710659898475,
    "total15": 530,
    "total60": 2166,
    "momentum": 1.112994350282486,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 316,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943713888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9943713888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5267379679144385
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 04:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.277

Log loss0.748

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.08855414348938243,
  "totalAfter": 2238,
  "shareBefore": 0.0022935779816513763,
  "totalBefore": 2180,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "crowd" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "crowd" (1H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb3a156398127ffbd1cbe9a13c9f97b135d271409fcdddc6a0094edffb40cf0ec

Previous hash7bb9865e8fc7164e03d1b0a150dd5d0456510f468ad238a9877753f777591d19