Ledger / Prediction #496 · narrative · 6H
Will "wojak" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
6 of 2166 launches in the last hour referenced "wojak" (5 distinct creators, rank #271). Last 15m momentum 1.57×.
Made2026-10-10 03:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 09:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 02:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.027348233519093188,
"momentum": 0.45082553526698377,
"diversity": 0.10000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.5261565098602569
},
"features": {
"term": "wojak",
"rank60": 271,
"share15": 0.004708097928436911,
"share60": 0.0029995385325334565,
"total15": 530,
"total60": 2166,
"momentum": 1.569607417065044,
"diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 6,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 316,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9943713888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990618981481482
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5261565098602569
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 09:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.277
Log loss0.747
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0012226297654773814,
"shareRatio": 0.4354957058730588,
"totalAfter": 8997,
"shareBefore": 0.0028995756718528994,
"totalBefore": 14140,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 11,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 41
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 53% that "wojak" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.29% → 0.12% (-58%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "wojak" (6H). momentum contributed +0.45 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
77f54402090d648d6f4db047a736ff95347f5707d362e3ce0ca012688db7724bPrevious hash
653bf60ada8a0c1674d6af33c559f67d75389a57430fb7bc731492dea049eb9a