Ledger / Prediction #50 · narrative · 1H

Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

26 of 1244 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (20 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.02×.

Made2026-10-09 08:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 09:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 08:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24729879383810724,
      "momentum": 0.015324316502037192,
      "diversity": 0.023076923076923127
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49642506927357327
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.021613832853025938,
    "share60": 0.021285140562248995,
    "total15": 346,
    "total60": 1244,
    "momentum": 1.015442335925181,
    "diversity": 0.7692307692307693,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 26,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 116,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988177777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988177777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49642506927357327
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 09:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.246

Log loss0.686

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01712583767684289,
  "shareRatio": 0.8227903189577718,
  "totalAfter": 1343,
  "shareBefore": 0.02086677367576244,
  "totalBefore": 1246,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 23,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 26
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "dog" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.09% → 1.71% (-18%). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on "dog" (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf28a8241840975ad78eead745614d1251bf8de86b261e0c66ad1c11c776144df

Previous hash757cd35e3b9afd50d28ab8c736b76c7e7b9c1b197b44857e4ae4d7ce5ee40bbe