Will "goat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 2308 launches in the last hour referenced "goat" (3 distinct creators, rank #251). Last 15m momentum 1.49×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 0.39546761037642714,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.45581948496078456
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "goat",
    "rank60": 251,
    "share15": 0.004180602006688963,
    "share60": 0.00281507145950628,
    "total15": 597,
    "total60": 2308,
    "momentum": 1.4850784666838177,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 317,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990972222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990972222222222
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.45581948496078456
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0036477331943720686,
  "shareRatio": 1.3894230769230769,
  "totalAfter": 1919,
  "shareBefore": 0.0025962786672436176,
  "totalBefore": 2311,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity