Ledger / Prediction #513 · narrative · 24H
Will "petawatt" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
62 of 2308 launches in the last hour referenced "petawatt" (32 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 3.86×.
Made2026-10-10 03:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 03:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 03:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.37765447089164866,
"momentum": 1.3509790554038636,
"diversity": -0.2806451612903226
},
"rawProbability": 0.604438626499783
},
"features": {
"term": "petawatt",
"rank60": 8,
"share15": 0.10451505016722408,
"share60": 0.027067994802944997,
"total15": 597,
"total60": 2308,
"momentum": 3.8612040133779266,
"diversity": 0.5161290322580645,
"launches15": 62,
"launches60": 62,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 32
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 317,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9990972222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9674712847222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.604438626499783
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 03:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.365
Log loss0.927
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00008426552065558575,
"shareRatio": 0.07181192331999156,
"totalAfter": 47469,
"shareBefore": 0.0013095363818777061,
"totalBefore": 47345,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 4,
"coverageBefore": 0.967508900462963,
"launchesBefore": 62
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 60% that "petawatt" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.13% → 0.01% (-94%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "petawatt" (24H). momentum contributed +1.35 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
f3591f0343a748f965a8384065b6a53807ab36032762d1f8c8247870b14cf6aaPrevious hash
c71c9b2e7fab07a823ad4c4cf5c3f3121467d612eafd3bce192b24dddd8acac5