GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #514 · narrative · 24H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 2308 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (37 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.80×.

Made2026-10-10 03:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 03:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 03:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": -0.22305692997932078,
      "diversity": -0.09272727272727273
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4309319200469317
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.019230769230769232,
    "share60": 0.02403637938501516,
    "total15": 597,
    "total60": 2308,
    "momentum": 0.8000693000693001,
    "diversity": 0.6727272727272727,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 37
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 317,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990972222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9674712847222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4309319200469317
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 03:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.324
Log loss0.842
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.024921527733889486,
  "shareRatio": 1.0639103105654453,
  "totalAfter": 47469,
  "shareBefore": 0.02342380399197381,
  "totalBefore": 47345,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1183,
  "coverageBefore": 0.967508900462963,
  "launchesBefore": 1109
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 43% that "inu" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 2.34% → 2.49% (+6%). PARTIAL.

— "inu" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0011a78db3aba10b14890d97c579d42f87069903430c6befd61a3c3b1fff9a7b
Previous hashf3591f0343a748f965a8384065b6a53807ab36032762d1f8c8247870b14cf6aa