Will "mayhem" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 2308 launches in the last hour referenced "mayhem" (3 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.61×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": -0.49484763509446716,
      "diversity": -0.823404255319149
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3119383823741224
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "mayhem",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.01254180602006689,
    "share60": 0.0205716760502382,
    "total15": 597,
    "total60": 2308,
    "momentum": 0.6096637915859884,
    "diversity": 0.06382978723404255,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 317,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990972222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9674712847222222
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3119383823741224
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006298847669005035,
  "shareRatio": 1.2318253742461327,
  "totalAfter": 47469,
  "shareBefore": 0.005111416200232337,
  "totalBefore": 47345,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 299,
  "coverageBefore": 0.967508900462963,
  "launchesBefore": 242
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity