Ledger / Prediction #52 · narrative · 1H

Will "address" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1244 launches in the last hour referenced "address" (6 distinct creators, rank #103). Last 15m momentum 0.28×.

Made2026-10-09 08:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 09:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 08:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -1.2873833285095881,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22096785087217194
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "address",
    "rank60": 103,
    "share15": 0.001440922190201729,
    "share60": 0.005220883534136547,
    "total15": 346,
    "total60": 1244,
    "momentum": 0.2759920195078696,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 116,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988177777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988177777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22096785087217194
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 09:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.049

Log loss0.250

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007446016381236039,
  "shareRatio": 0.21411401098901098,
  "totalAfter": 1343,
  "shareBefore": 0.004815409309791332,
  "totalBefore": 1246,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 22% that "address" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.48% → 0.07% (-85%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "address" (1H). momentum contributed -1.29 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8c87321c079140bac9a5416dcc7c91e3818f5fe9f89dcb8d0332095ef86bb26d

Previous hash58845be7aa0078a70b30858a4f51ac9e6db05a02547225d3adf955e6175491c9