Ledger / Prediction #523 · narrative · 1H

Will "underpants" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 79% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

65 of 2220 launches in the last hour referenced "underpants" (36 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 4.38×.

Made2026-10-10 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 03:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3847424036192305,
      "momentum": 1.4772018203032442,
      "diversity": -0.23538461538461533
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7902709842663268
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "underpants",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.1291913214990138,
    "share60": 0.029491220171094103,
    "total15": 506,
    "total60": 2220,
    "momentum": 4.380670611439842,
    "diversity": 0.5538461538461539,
    "launches15": 65,
    "launches60": 65,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 36
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 249,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954858333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954858333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7902709842663268
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 05:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.625

Log loss1.562

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.02502780867630701,
  "shareRatio": 0.7810814437139407,
  "totalAfter": 1798,
  "shareBefore": 0.032171581769437,
  "totalBefore": 2238,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 45,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 72
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 79% that "underpants" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.22% → 2.50% (-22%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "underpants" (1H). momentum contributed +1.48 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 79% and wrong on "underpants". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdf2ac8d19a61fc908ab974cedbaeeb9d0d4ad108853e88aded5a62a3de53f67d

Previous hashc10936f6b0eff4c0f4b1cf0c7a748a8c2f5f013a0cd1c25b59715d3029e025b2