Ledger / Prediction #524 · narrative · 1H

Will "within" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2220 launches in the last hour referenced "within" (4 distinct creators, rank #204). Last 15m momentum 2.04×.

Made2026-10-10 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 03:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": 0.7150617682563475,
      "diversity": -0.21428571428571433
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5624833790490779
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "within",
    "rank60": 204,
    "share15": 0.006903353057199211,
    "share60": 0.003376857271499325,
    "total15": 506,
    "total60": 2220,
    "momentum": 2.0443129520052596,
    "diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 249,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954858333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954858333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5624833790490779
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 05:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.316

Log loss0.827

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002224694104560623,
  "shareRatio": 0.7467481934408003,
  "totalAfter": 1798,
  "shareBefore": 0.003127792672028597,
  "totalBefore": 2238,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 56% that "within" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.31% → 0.22% (-29%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "within" (1H). momentum contributed +0.72 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb33bf86886c4166df38dd26471a5ee02918097757669e5607627241090563e99

Previous hashdf2ac8d19a61fc908ab974cedbaeeb9d0d4ad108853e88aded5a62a3de53f67d