Ledger / Prediction #527 · narrative · 6H
Will "gpu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 70% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
83 of 2220 launches in the last hour referenced "gpu" (46 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 4.38×.
Made2026-10-10 04:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 03:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.42141040430437465,
"momentum": 1.4772018203032442,
"diversity": -0.23493975903614456
},
"rawProbability": 0.7036147245562591
},
"features": {
"term": "gpu",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.16469428007889547,
"share60": 0.03759567762269248,
"total15": 506,
"total60": 2220,
"momentum": 4.380670611439842,
"diversity": 0.5542168674698795,
"launches15": 83,
"launches60": 83,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 46
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 249,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9954858333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992476388888889
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7036147245562591
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 10:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.495
Log loss1.216
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.006735626653836902,
"shareRatio": 0.9691339408236582,
"totalAfter": 8314,
"shareBefore": 0.006975907946781733,
"totalBefore": 13905,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 56,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 97
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 70% that "gpu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.70% → 0.67% (-3%). PARTIAL.
— "gpu" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
60fb2b64cb68ac0236dc2075775532441941c504d9f817fc94fe2680d877985fPrevious hash
d196afcacc620a8e13c87a3c50f689ff1131bf66ce579467f78ea0adf2f7c967