GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #529 · narrative · 24H

Will "gpu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

83 of 2220 launches in the last hour referenced "gpu" (46 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 4.38×.

Made2026-10-10 04:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 04:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 03:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.42141040430437465,
      "momentum": 1.4772018203032442,
      "diversity": -0.23493975903614456
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6299112821895684
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "gpu",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.16469428007889547,
    "share60": 0.03759567762269248,
    "total15": 506,
    "total60": 2220,
    "momentum": 4.380670611439842,
    "diversity": 0.5542168674698795,
    "launches15": 83,
    "launches60": 83,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 46
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 249,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954858333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.988149837962963
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6299112821895684
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 04:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.397
Log loss0.994
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0022672373606814427,
  "shareRatio": 0.913570825378418,
  "totalAfter": 47194,
  "shareBefore": 0.002482981232800182,
  "totalBefore": 48329,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 107,
  "coverageBefore": 0.9883379282407407,
  "launchesBefore": 120
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 63% that "gpu" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.25% → 0.23% (-9%). PARTIAL.

— "gpu" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd5a86a656289dc35319d8ad3acc0f6cf116c8aec1bf9cf93c5aee5b016f68cc0
Previous hash41a1ee6a16bc16810c2a8301f613351f2bde2cef69b6be40596dfe196b61b1df