Ledger / Prediction #529 · narrative · 24H
Will "gpu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
83 of 2220 launches in the last hour referenced "gpu" (46 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 4.38×.
Made2026-10-10 04:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 04:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 03:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.42141040430437465,
"momentum": 1.4772018203032442,
"diversity": -0.23493975903614456
},
"rawProbability": 0.6299112821895684
},
"features": {
"term": "gpu",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.16469428007889547,
"share60": 0.03759567762269248,
"total15": 506,
"total60": 2220,
"momentum": 4.380670611439842,
"diversity": 0.5542168674698795,
"launches15": 83,
"launches60": 83,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 46
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 249,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9954858333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.988149837962963
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6299112821895684
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 04:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.397
Log loss0.994
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0022672373606814427,
"shareRatio": 0.913570825378418,
"totalAfter": 47194,
"shareBefore": 0.002482981232800182,
"totalBefore": 48329,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 107,
"coverageBefore": 0.9883379282407407,
"launchesBefore": 120
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 63% that "gpu" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.25% → 0.23% (-9%). PARTIAL.
— "gpu" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
d5a86a656289dc35319d8ad3acc0f6cf116c8aec1bf9cf93c5aee5b016f68cc0Previous hash
41a1ee6a16bc16810c2a8301f613351f2bde2cef69b6be40596dfe196b61b1df