Ledger / Prediction #533 · token · 1H

Will $$GOAT still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 2% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 27m ago. No social links. No hot term. Creator launched 52 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-10 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 03:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.02310254327777607
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "9yxHSz3fYLVXQULvSxZiiy7J8yu18dP9bs9Kdkp5pump",
    "name": "goat coin",
    "symbol": "$GOAT",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 27,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 7,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 1149.102362484862,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 52
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 597,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.02310254327777607
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 05:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.023

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T03:33:22.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 1149.102362484862,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4375.032281848849,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 1149.102362484862,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 2% that $$GOAT would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $1,149, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $$GOAT (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash69ae97c44e11b9bf8aa05ffdb8a7cc8cf01e778af095bd02a1d21bdfef4f6b18

Previous hash5e38ecda593ae2c36772522aaa668ce72c7da614f71ab44adbd3cc53b0de6cfa