Ledger / Prediction #537 · narrative · 1H

Will "persuasion" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 77% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

88 of 1897 launches in the last hour referenced "persuasion" (49 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 3.80×.

Made2026-10-10 04:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 04:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43018483530661594,
      "momentum": 1.3359498834183547,
      "diversity": -0.23181818181818187
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7745731761131673
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "persuasion",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.17735470941883769,
    "share60": 0.04662802950474183,
    "total15": 498,
    "total60": 1897,
    "momentum": 3.803607214428858,
    "diversity": 0.5568181818181818,
    "launches15": 88,
    "launches60": 88,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 49
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921352777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921352777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7745731761131673
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.600

Log loss1.490

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.04364820846905537,
  "shareRatio": 0.8743523316062176,
  "totalAfter": 1535,
  "shareBefore": 0.05002605523710266,
  "totalBefore": 1919,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 67,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 96
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 77% that "persuasion" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.00% → 4.36% (-13%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "persuasion" (1H). momentum contributed +1.34 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 77% and wrong on "persuasion". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash52627dd6211c8ea473895ed7bdb729cb8cca3c81de05e5f7c857b9d8f1b8d57a

Previous hash90138e06f5c995d932b10ea6ef0203086183fa913ba4eafd763170f412f23fcb