Ledger / Prediction #538 · narrative · 1H

Will "unit" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

54 of 1897 launches in the last hour referenced "unit" (30 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

Made2026-10-10 04:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 04:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35693192011952607,
      "momentum": -3.355397998810789,
      "diversity": -0.23333333333333328
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "unit",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.001002004008016032,
    "share60": 0.028714436248682824,
    "total15": 498,
    "total60": 1897,
    "momentum": 0.034895479031457406,
    "diversity": 0.5555555555555556,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 54,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921352777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921352777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006514657980456026,
  "shareRatio": 0.034403669724770644,
  "totalAfter": 1535,
  "shareBefore": 0.028139656070870246,
  "totalBefore": 1919,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 54
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "unit" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.81% → 0.07% (-98%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "unit" (1H). momentum contributed -3.36 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0916093bf387611a5d373a2b71a9ce34cd6d2f57a72cc04024e6ac92ddde937d

Previous hash52627dd6211c8ea473895ed7bdb729cb8cca3c81de05e5f7c857b9d8f1b8d57a